Premarket Prep Gold 20210325

25 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210325

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Still about a week to go into the close of the month
  • Month­ly cur­rent­ly show­ing a devel­op­ing drag­on­fly doji which at close even could still mean fur­ther downside.
• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body above W1 C‑dem

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­sol­i­dat­ing in a range between Sup­ply and Demand with yes­ter­day clos­ing as a Bull­ish Inside Bar price could be in D1 phase 3
  • Mid D1 swing
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3
• Pre­mar­ket
  • Closed as a H4 Bear Engulf with long sell­ing wick
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend. Will let the pro­file and open sen­ti­ment guide trad­ing decisions.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous val­ue although still with­in over­all range (at the bottom)
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23197
  • ASR: 13528
    • 340
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1738.420
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1723.870

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Opened right above VAH
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.01xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price opened at val­ue edge after hav­ing cre­at­ed a H4 Bear Engulf with long sell­ing wick (tak­ing out sup­ply) in pre­mar­ket. Val­ue could get accepted. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance 
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, medi­um time­frame bear­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through
  • Con: Trad­ing right into demand
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive:  H4 tak­ing out of supply
  • Pre­ferred: Val­ue edge hold­ing with bull­ish price action and IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1738

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1727 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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