Premarket Prep Gold 20210324

24 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210324

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body
• Month­ly trad­ing slight­ly below last month’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf (at VWAP in DT) giv­ing D1-C‑S 1738 return­ing to D1-C‑D 1727 BASE (test­ed mul­ti­ple times)
  • H4 Morn­ing Star at D1-C‑D 1727 BASE
  • Mid H4 swing
  • Pre­mar­ket: Closed as a H4 Inside Bar form­ing some supply
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above pre­vi­ous although still with­in over­all range
  • ADR: 24463
  • ASR: 14205
    • 360
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1742.460
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1724.610

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Open right at D1-C‑D 1727 BASE after a H4 inside bar was formed retrac­ing all the way back to new­ly formed H4 C‑dem which shares the lev­el with the D1 Base lev­el. D1 could see a con­tin­u­a­tion at D1 VWAP in DT although trad­ing direct­ly into D1 demand could prove tricky. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2 — lack­ing clarity
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Three Inside Down in the mak­ing, D1 DBD
  • Pre­ferred: Per­haps a test of LTF sup­ply before clos­ing strong bear­ish­ly, IB exten­sion down, prob­a­bly low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. Oth­er­wise a test of VAL with near­by D1-C‑S 1738
  • Con: D1 demand
• Hypo 2 — M30 Swing Rever­sal Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 RBR in the mak­ing D1 c‑dem near­by, trad­ing with­in W1 demand
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up tak­ing out LTF sup­ply test­ing VAL (@M30 QHi)
  • Con: trad­ing right into H4 supply
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1738

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1727 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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