Premarket Prep Gold 20210323

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion con­tin­ued, some tri­an­gle being formed mid swing at D1 VWAP in DT
  • H4 Evening star formed (giv­ing some sup­ply below pre­vi­ous sup­ply) at H4 QHi return­ing to H4-C‑D 1734 but clos­ing slight­ly above after react­ing off W1 C‑dem leav­ing behind some buy­ing wick.
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as a bull­ish Inside Bar not clos­ing with­in above sup­ply at H4 QHi
• Mixed Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Pro­files were brack­et­ing but yesterday’s has cre­at­ed a slight­ly big­ger swing and val­ue below the previous.
  • ADR: 25072
  • ASR: 15729
    • 400
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1743.070
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1727.320

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1734 at VAH near M30 QLo
  • H4-C_S 1742.467 at M30 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Inside Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. D1 con­sol­i­da­tion after hit­ting a D1 Base sup­ply lev­el and open above val­ue mod­er­ate imbal­ance indi­cat­ing a poten­tial for an upwards move although due to D1 con­sol­i­da­tion and trad­ing just below H4 QHi prob­a­bly not a big move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, D1 narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) sus­tained auc­tion. Per­haps more like­ly an IB exten­sion down with price action rever­sal at VAH fol­lowed by a failed auction. 
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply, New H4 supply
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Watch­ing paint dry

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1742.467
• D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1734
• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.500

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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