Premarket Prep Gold 20210319

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 11 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last week’s body with cur­rent­ly a devel­op­ing sell­ing wick (which we would need a close to con­firm). Price trad­ing right on top of W1-C‑D 1730

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ing high­er con­firm­ing D1 Swing and cur­rent­ly trad­ing mid-swing
  • Price ran into D1 VWAP in DT (with­in D1-C‑S 1725.10 sup­ply, which is a base lev­el) and closed yes­ter­day as a Bear­ish Inside bar (after reach­ing to take out sup­ply) but with long buy­ing wick. 
  • H4 drop and what looks like a dead cat bounce through Evening star clos­ing with­in new­ly formed demand H4-C‑D 1734.077
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Bull Engulf at new­ly formed demand giv­ing H4-C‑D 1734.850
• Trend: H4 up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4‑day brack­et with yesterday’s val­ue being very wide
  • ADR: 26929
  • ASR: 17019
    • 430
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1755.410
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1719.200

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1734.077 with­in value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Although the open was with­in val­ue it hap­pened at VAH and was fol­lowed by a con­sol­i­da­tion at val­ue edge dur­ing IB. Even though a H4 Bull Engulf was formed pre­mar­ket (fail­ing to close above QHi) the mul­ti-day brack­et­ing sug­gests a bal­anc­ing mar­ket at the moment at the end of a medi­um time­frame uptrend. With price being at D1 VWAP in DT could encounter more sellers. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market 
  • Nar­ra­tive: open within
  • Pre­ferred: play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 bull engulf, D1 bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Break up from con­sol­i­da­tion at val­ue edge coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion. In case of a IB exten­sion down this the­sis would be invalidated. 
  • Con: IB exten­sion down. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1751
• D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1734.850
• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.500

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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