Premarket Prep Gold 20210317

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 11 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last week’s body, slight­ly above W1-C‑D 1730

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 break high­er from con­sol­i­da­tion after Bull Engulf, still trad­ing with­in D1 sup­ply at D1 VWAP in DT
  • H4 sup­ply tak­en out then formed an Evening star giv­ing new sup­ply at H4-C‑S 1734.010 with no fol­low-through as price is trad­ing above W1-C‑D 1730
  • Pre­mar­ket: Trad­ed and closed high­er with­in new­ly formed H4 supply
• Mixed Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
  • ADR: 25189
  • ASR: 16946
    • 430
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1741.130
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1726.110

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • N.A.
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price opened at M30 QHi and trad­ed low­er to VAH. With H4 trad­ing high­er there might be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move tak­ing out H4 sup­ply unless price accepts value. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 close with­in sup­ply, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Test of val­ue edge with bull­ish price action and IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: IB exten­sion down, trad­ing with­in D1 sup­ply and near D1 VWAP in DT
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 sup­ply, D1 VWAP in DT
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance (coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion down) with quick follow-through
  • Con: medi­um time­frame bull­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• FOMC lat­er today. Extra cau­tion advised.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1734.010
• D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.500

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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