Premarket Prep Gold 20210315

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 11 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion at D1-C‑S 1725.10 Base level
  • 3rd test of H4-C‑S 1734.842 with a ham­mer formed with­in H4 Qhi after demand was formed at D1-C‑D 1707.500 through H4 Three Inside Up
  • M30 Three Inside Down at M30 Qhi near H4-C‑S 1734.842 fol­lowed by consolidation
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Three Out­side Down
• Trend: H4 , D1 , W1 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide swings in val­ues created
  • ADR: 30427
  • ASR: 19233
    • 490
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1729.160
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1699.140

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1707.500 at VAH and with­in M30 QLo
  • H4-C‑S 1734.842 with­in Val­ue, with­in M30 Qhi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.9xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. H4 Three Out­side Down with open sen­ti­ment we could see a mean rever­sion to val­ue edge. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Rever­sion / Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment. H4 Three Out­side Down at H4 C‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auction
  • Con: D1 Bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Respon­sive Activity
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 (attempt­ed) break from con­sol­i­da­tion, hav­ing reached D1 Base level
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action tak­ing out LTF sup­plies. Extend­ing up with sus­tained auction.
  • Con:  Larg­er time­frame still bearish.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1734.842
• D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1707.500
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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