Premarket Prep Gold 20210311

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Retrac­ing towards last week’s body high although still two days into the candle

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf at D1/W1 demand with con­tin­u­a­tion high­er and arriv­ing at D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE lev­el clos­ing slight­ly with­in supply
  • H4 Con­sol­i­da­tion at H4 50MA in DT end­ing with a bull engulf cre­at­ing demand giv­ing H4-C‑D 1715.315
  • Price con­tin­ued high­er reach­ing H4-C‑S 1734.761 coin­cid­ing with H4 UKC in DT although not much reac­tion as of yet. Closed above W1-C‑D 1730.
  • Price trad­ing with­in H4 QHi
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed with­in supply
• Mixed Trend: H4 UP, D1 DOWN, W1 UP 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
  • ADR: 32047
  • ASR: 19232
    • 480
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1727.100
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1708.100

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1715.315 at VAH
  • H4-C‑S 1734.761 near­by open at large imbalance
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. H4 Phase 2 hit­ting sup­ply but clos­ing with­in togeth­er with open sen­ti­ment we could poten­tial­ly see a mean rever­sion. If price takes out said sup­ply we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion as price did return to D1 base level. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble momen­tum behind the move. 
• Hypo 2 — Trend continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Phase 2 com­ing from D1 bull engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action dur­ing IB tak­ing out H4 sup­ply, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: Open sen­ti­ment, larg­er time­frame still  bearish.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1734.761
• D1-C‑S 1725.10 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• H4-C‑D 1715.315
• D1-C‑D 1707.500
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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