Premarket Prep Gold 20210308

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1-C‑D 1730

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Slight Gap up with gap fill
  • Pre­mar­ket H4 sup­ply cre­at­ed at H4 VWAP in DT giv­ing H4-C‑S 1705.958
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue in DT
  • ADR: 31916
  • ASR: 17995
    • 450
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1707.520
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1687.270

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1693 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment we could see an accep­tance of val­ue also due to near prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge. Although an open above val­ue does not entire­ly play into the larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment so per­haps we could see a shift in sen­ti­ment although less like­ly on the short term. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Accceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment plus larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment. 
  • Pre­ferred: Quick accep­tance and rotation
  • Con: LTF demand right at PPOC plus very tight value. 
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble sen­ti­ment change, open above val­ue, trad­ing with­in W1 demand near D1 C‑dem. 
  • Pre­ferred: Con­fi­dent bull­ish price action with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1725.10
• H4-C‑S 1715.630
• H4-C‑S 1705.958

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay but a lit­tle tired

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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