Premarket Prep Gold 20210305

05 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210305

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1-C‑D 1730

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • After D1 DBD there was a test of D1-C‑S 1725.10 and con­tin­u­a­tion down arriv­ing at D1-C‑D 1693 near­ing W1 demand end
  • Some H4 con­sol­i­da­tion with a weak-ish Morn­ing Star formed at D1-C‑D 1693
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Morn­ing Star
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below the 2 over­lap­ping days
  • ADR: 34869
  • ASR: 17927
    • 450
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1723.070
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1690.540

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1715.630 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.7xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. D1 Phase 4 arriv­ing at D1 demand with a H4 con­sol­i­da­tion we could see a rever­sal here. Although due to larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment we could see a W1 phase 4 as well and thus even­tu­al­ly take out W1 demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1/W1 Phase 4 
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action tak­ing out old H4 demand, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) with sus­tained auc­tion test­ing end of W1 demand. 
  • Con: D1 demand.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and near­by D1 demand after a big­ger move down
  • Pre­ferred: IB trad­ing low­er to about 1xASR below val­ue, bull­ish price action with either IB exten­sion up or a failed auc­tion. Move to IB edge. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Non-farm lat­er today

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1725.10
• H4-C‑S 1715.630

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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