Premarket Prep Gold 20210304

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1-C‑D 1730

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBB through Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1725.10 tak­ing out D1 demand
  • H4 DBD no arrival (yet) at D1-C‑D 1693
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Bull Engulf cre­at­ing demand H4-C‑D 1710.50
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑days over­lap­ping value
  • ADR: 35172
  • ASR: 17326
    • 440
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1737.410
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1701.970

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1725.10 with­in val­ue below PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.25xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Due to open sen­ti­ment and the new­ly formed H4 Bull Engulf we could see a shift in sen­ti­ment through a val­ue accep­tance. Due to price trad­ing with­in W1 and near­by D1 C‑dem this could back up the the­sis. How­ev­er, yes­ter­day closed as a D1 DBD and price opened below val­ue indi­cat­ing price could want to con­tin­ue fur­ther down. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 C‑sup with­in val­ue, open sen­ti­ment, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action, pos­si­bly test­ing val­ue and extend­ing IB down with a sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: H4 Bull Engulf premarket
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Bull Engulf, price trad­ing with­in W1 demand, near prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge. 
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through
  • Con: LTF sup­plies and D1 C‑sup with­in value

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1770
• H4-C‑S 1751
• D1-C‑S 1725.10

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• H4-C‑D 1710.50
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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