Premarket Prep Gold 20210303

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above W1-C‑D 1730

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick at W1-C‑D 1730
  • H4 Three Inside Up with RBR con­tin­u­a­tion giv­ing H4-C‑D 1727.37 BASE and con­sol­i­da­tion at H4 VWAP in DT
  • Pre­mar­ket: Trad­ed slight­ly low­er below con­sol­i­da­tion (fol­low­ing H4 VWAP in DT)
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous value
  • ADR: 34151
  • ASR: 16743
    • 420
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 17470.400
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1707.190

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1727.37 BASE with­in Val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Although if H4 base lev­el gets tak­en out we could see a fur­ther con­tin­u­a­tion down in line with larg­er bear­ish sen­ti­ment. Although due to a lot of LTF con­ges­tion we could see some push­back on the way to orig­i­nat­ing lev­el of 1716.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: open with­in val­ue with lots of LTF sup­ply and demand around
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF and ADR levels.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price con­sol­i­dat­ing and trad­ed down at H4 VWAP in DT, larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment. 
  • Pre­ferred: Take out of H4 demand hit­ting base lev­el. Clos­ing below VAL con­fi­dent­ly coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion fol­lowed by sus­tained auction. 
  • Con: D1 Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick, rid­dle with LTF con­ges­tion on the way down/ 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick, W1 demand nearby
  • Pre­ferred: Open at VAH, con­sol­i­da­tion with strong fin­ish­er clos­ing above val­ue coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up fol­lowed by a sus­tained auction.
  • Con: H4 and LTF sup­plies over­head giv­ing congestion. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1806
• H4-C‑S 1770
• H4-C‑S 1751

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• H4-C‑D 1727.37 BASE
• H4-C‑D 1716.800
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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