Premarket Prep Gold 20210302

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main fund

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1-C‑D 1730

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed low­er leav­ing behind a longer sell­ing wick and clos­ing with­in W1/D1 demand with D1 Demand End not tak­en out (yet)
  • H4 Bear Engulf cre­at­ed giv­ing H4-C‑S 1751 and con­tin­u­a­tion low­er arriv­ing at H4-C‑D 1716.813
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 Inside bar with longer sell­ing wick at H4-C‑D 1716.813
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • ADR: 33527
  • ASR: 18280
    • 460
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1759.750
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1719.660

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1751 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Due to open sen­ti­ment and demand lev­els we could see a mean rever­sion although risky due to larg­er time­frame sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action, IB exten­sion up
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment with near­by LTF sup­plies, Bear­ish LTF price action premarket
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down, with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out D1 demand
  • Con: Trad­ing right into demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1806
• H4-C‑S 1770
• H4-C‑S 1751

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730
• H4-C‑D 1716.813
• D1-C‑D 1693

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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