Premarket Prep Gold 20210301

01 Mar Premarket Prep Gold 20210301

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price arrived at W1-C‑D 1730 and W1 LKC in UT with some reaction

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 arrival at W1-C‑D 1730 
  • H4 DBR Bull Engulf at W1 C‑Dem with con­tin­u­a­tion higher
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 trad­ed high­er clos­ing as a spin­ning top with longer sell­ing wick. M30 Bear Engulf pre­mar­ket at VAL.
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT with an extend­ed move and mean rever­sion last Friday
  • ADR: 31726
  • ASR: 16707
    • 420
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1775.680
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1717.170

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1770 above VAH with­in Range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Due to larg­er time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment and ini­tial reac­tion off W1 c‑dem lev­el we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion down. WIth the open some­what near VAL and Bear Engulf pre­mar­ket back­ing enhanc­ing this bias. Although price action shows we could be in for more upside as a spin­ning top with longer sell­ing wick has proven to be unre­li­able quite some times. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action, pos­si­ble test­ing val­ue but not clos­ing with­in fol­lowed by an IB exten­sion down
  • Con: N.A.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: 
  • Pre­ferred: 
  • Con: val­ue very tight, lots of con­ges­tion above plus H4 c‑sup above VAH, larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1806
• H4-C‑S 1770

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1730

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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