Premarket Prep Gold 20210224

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP
  • Final­ly broke below W1 50MA and is trad­ing below pos­si­bly form­ing a W1 DBD tak­ing out larg­er time­frame demand
  • Retraced the move almost back to W1-C‑S 1818.073 BASE level

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed as a D1 Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick
  • H4 Phase 1 / 3 with Bear Engulf form­ing sup­ply at H4-C‑S 1810.242 (high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) with con­se­quent slight fol­low-through down but imme­di­ate push back high­er test­ing said sup­ply through H4 Three Inside Up leav­ing behind a longer sell­ing wick. Price trad­ing between new­ly formed H4 c‑sup and H4-C‑D 1806.874
  • Mid D1 Swing
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as a consolidation
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Imbal­ance
  • ADR: 25774
  • ASR: 15228
    • 390
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1815.860
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1795.520

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1810.242 at VAH
  • H4-C‑D 1806.874 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range (ambigu­ous as it is right at VAL, could be con­sid­ered with­in although indi­ca­tor shows as below) 
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • Right below VAL
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance to bal­anc­ing. Due to open sen­ti­ment we could see an ear­ly val­ue accep­tance but with val­ue being so tight this will prob­a­bly not be trade­able. With a pos­si­ble D1 RBR we could see a move high­er after rota­tion. Due to being mid swing this could real­ly go either way. H4 price action could be con­sid­ered a Phase 3 as we do have moved high­er not reach­ing W1 base lev­el yet. Although we are near. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Just found out I don’t know how to call this par­tic­u­lar set­up as the open is some­what ambigu­ous so the best I feel under the cir­cum­stances is a val­ue rejec­tion up even though it tech­ni­cal­ly is not.
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 RBR nar­ra­tive, H4 consolidation
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly move through val­ue extend­ing up 
  • Con: H4 sup­ply above
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Three Out­side Down narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action clos­ing deep into demand with sus­tained auc­tion, although unlikely. 
  • Con: Lots of demand underneath. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• W1-C‑S 1818.073 BASE
• H4-C‑S 1810.242 (high in dist. curve)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1806.874
• D1-C‑D 1787
• D1-C‑D 1764.5

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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