Premarket Prep Gold 20210222

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 8 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP
  • Final­ly broke below W1 50MA and is trad­ing below pos­si­bly form­ing a W1 DBD tak­ing out larg­er time­frame demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf formed after tak­ing out larg­er time­frame demand and react­ing off D1-C‑D 1764.5
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and strong bull­ish fin­ish­er with con­tin­u­a­tion higher
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed with anoth­er rally
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below a 2‑day brack­et with cur­rent­ly price trad­ing above the over­all bracket
  • ADR: 25271
  • ASR: 16799
    • 420
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1791.440
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1760.570

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • Open at ADR 0.5 high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large imbal­ance. With larg­er time­frame tak­ing out demand we could see a bit of a bounce from these lev­els as a pull­back. Due to the open sen­ti­ment we could see a mean rever­sion to the D1 Bull Engulf formed on Friday.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment with open sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action tak­ing out LTF demand con­firm­ing a reversal
  • Con: New­ly formed D1-C‑D 1778
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1-C‑D 1778 at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: Price extend­ing down fol­lowed by bull­ish price action fail­ing auction
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull Engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Bull­ish price action with exten­sion on momen­tum fol­lowed by a sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Opent sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• W1-C‑S 1818.073

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1787
• D1-C‑D 1764.5

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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