Premarket Prep Gold 20210218

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP
  • Final­ly broke below W1 50MA and is trad­ing below pos­si­bly form­ing a W1 DBD a the end of the week (although no close yet of course)
  • Trad­ing with­in W1 QLo, W1 swing still intact as well as MN demand. A take out of 1764.835 would take both out. 

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ing clos­ing low­er into D1-C‑D 1787
  • Some H4 sup­ply cre­at­ed at H4-C‑S 1790 through con­sol­i­da­tion with a break down to old demand at H4-C‑D 1772.35 fol­lowed by a bull engulf at said lev­el and some fol­low-through higher.
  • Pre­mar­ket: Price closed as a H4 Inside Bar with slight­ly longer buy­ing wick.
• Trend
  • Trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3 day brack­et with yes­ter­day fair­ly wide
  • ADR: 25540
  • ASR: 18938
    • 475
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1795.080
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1769.650

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With some sup­plies at VAL and open sen­ti­ment we could see a return to val­ue play and thus con­tin­ue low­er after con­firm­ing a rever­sal at these levels. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 Three Inside Down nar­ra­tive in the mak­ing, larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment.
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action with IB exten­sion down (prefer­ably on momen­tum) sus­tained auc­tion till reach­ing large time­frame end of sup­ply before pos­si­bly revers­ing back up. If that sup­ply gets tak­en out we are look­ing for a longer time­frame bear­ish sen­ti­ment but we could see push back first before that happens. 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with close prox­im­i­ty we could pos­si­ble see val­ue being accept­ed pos­si­bly form­ing H4 RBR.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• D1-C‑S 1836.021
• H4-C‑S 1790

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1787

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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