Premarket Prep Gold 20210217

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP
  • Final­ly broke below W1 50MA and is trad­ing below (although no close)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBD clos­ing almost tak­ing out D1 swing 
  • Move below H4-C‑S 1819.219
  • Pre­mar­ket: Cre­at­ed some sup­ply after the big drop
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3 day brack­et with yes­ter­day fair­ly wide
  • ADR: 25155
  • ASR: 17944
    • 450
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1826.360
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1786.750

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.2xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Due to the open sen­ti­ment we could see some mean rever­sion although due to new­ly formed H4 sup­ply we might see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move instead as there is no sig­nif­i­cant demand below until 1764.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 drop plus W1 50MA Break down sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Momen­tum exten­sion below with sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Open sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment could be grounds for a pull­back before any continuation. 
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price Action per­haps with a failed auc­tion combination
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• D1-C‑S 1836.153

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1787.150

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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