Premarket Prep Gold 20210216

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) in a squeeze with W1 VWAP

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed lower
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 con­tin­ued above W1/D1 QLo
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 retraced more than 50% of the pre­vi­ous move high­er after react­ing off H4 VWAP
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day brack­et­ing range
  • ADR: 23131
  • ASR: 16699
    • 420
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1826.940
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1815.980

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • LTF sup­plies above val­ue with­in and above range
  • D1-C‑D 1814.024 below val­ue at LTF demand
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. LTF formed a Drag­on­fly Doji with­in val­ue pre­mar­ket so there might be a push high­er although not the strongest direc­tion clue. Togeth­er with the open sen­ti­ment we should look for plays off LTF and ADR levels. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by ADR and LTF SD levels
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 phase 1 at W1 QLo location
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly close above val­ue, exten­sion up and sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to W1 move lower
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly close below val­ue, IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• D1-C‑S 1836.153

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• D1-C‑D 1814.024
• D1-C‑D 1787.150

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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