Premarket Prep Gold 12172020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 51 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a momen­tum play.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price reject­ing over­head sup­ply form­ing an Inside bar with long sell­ing wick and is cur­rent­ly devel­op­ing a pos­si­ble W1 RBR but there are still two days left so any­thing could happen. 
• Price returned to MN-C‑S 1877.471

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed high­er with clean arrival at D1-C‑S 1863.817
  • H4 cre­at­ed H4-C‑D 1861.152 after test­ing H4 50MA/VWAP lev­el leav­ing behind a big buy­ing wick and con­se­quent follow-through
  • H4 Ral­ly after a base formed pre­mar­ket and open tak­ing out D1-C‑S 1863.817
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
  • ADR: 25399
  • ASR: 15434
    • 390
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1865.67
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1844.69

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • Open near ADR 0.5 High
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.7 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Slight­ly large imbal­ance. Due to Over­head demand been tak­ing out at open we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. A return to MN-C‑S 1877.471 Base would point in the same direc­tion. Next D1/W1 demand is 0.5xASR away. Although open was right at H4-C‑S 1878.126. If price man­ages to take out H4 demand at H4-C‑S 1884.814 END we would be near ADR exhaus­tion as well. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Tak­ing out H4 demand at H4-C‑S 1884.814 END. IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) Sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Price with­in D1/H4 QHi, Asia trad­ed high­er, near­ing Mean Rever­sion criteria.
  • Pre­ferred: Price action rever­sal, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • VAH at Yes­ter­day’s high
  • Pre­ferred: IB exsten­sion down, price action rever­sal, failed auction.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks are still on

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.729
• H4-C‑S 1878.126

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1861.152
• D1-C‑D 1837.559

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay but going through some­thing per­son­al. Might decide not to trade unless real­ly clear on a pos­si­ble setup. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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