Premarket Prep Gold 12102020

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if possible. 

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s Inside Bar and is near­ing W1-C‑S 1888.729 (still some ways to go)
• Price is near­ing MN-C‑D 1877.471 BASE

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1863.817 return­ing at D1-C‑D 1839.702 BASE
  • H4 Phase 4 with some­what messy arrival at D1-C‑D 1839.702 BASE and H4 QLo being reac­tive with price clos­ing above QLo but no fol­low-through on a move high­er, instead an Inside Bar.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues slop­ing down
  • ADR: 28204
  • ASR: 17662
    • 450
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1870.440
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1839.702

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1863.817 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1 x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Large imbal­ance. Mean rever­sion would be the best play although we returned to a D1 base sig­ni­fy­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the move medi­um term. Price is mid M30 swing even though right at H4 QLo.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) and sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • If we could trade below 1822 we could see a fur­ther play down. Any­thing before that might prove tricky short­ing into a large demand. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) and sus­tained auction.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.729
• H4-C‑S 1873.428
• D1-C‑S 1863.817

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1839.702 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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