Premarket Prep Gold 02152021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 QLo / W1 50MA in UT (test­ed 4 times) ina squeeze with W1 VWAP

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Ham­mer after react­ing off D1 / W1 QLo, cur­rent­ly trad­ing below the body
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 above D1-C‑D 1814.024 after some sup­ply was cre­at­ed giv­ing H4-C‑S 
  • Pre­mar­ket: New­ly formed H4 Bear Engulf with­in sup­ply clos­ing below
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
  • ADR: 25201
  • ASR: 17415
    • 440
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1830.560
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1810.470

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • LTF demand at VAL and D1 c‑dem
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket although due to W1 QLo and D1 c‑dem we could see buy­ers come into the market. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 QLo, D1 c‑dem
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly close above val­ue, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) with sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: Play off near­by LTF and ADR levels.
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Fol­low-through on new­ly formed H4 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Deep close below val­ue into demand, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auction. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• D1-C‑S 1836.153
• H4-C‑S 1819.139

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• D1-C‑D 1814.024
• D1-C‑D 1787.150

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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