Premarket Prep Gold 02102021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 6 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is retrac­ing the W1 Three Out­side Down hav­ing reached new­ly formed W1-C‑S 1847.890

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 fol­low-through on bull­ish inside bar clos­ing above D1 QLo, test­ing QLo once before trad­ing high­er. Some ini­tial push­back on first test of QHi (and D1 VWAP)
  • H4 Evening Star at D1/H4 QHi and W1-C‑S 1847.890 cre­at­ing H4-C‑S 1842.785 with no real break below instead cre­at­ing a Bull Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 1839.490 with price slight­ly clos­ing with­in over­head supply.
  • Pre­mar­ket: Closed deep­er into new­ly formed H4-C‑S 1842.785
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 Up, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
  • ADR: 27434
  • ASR: 21246
    • 540
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1848.500
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1829.910

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1847.890 at H4/D1 QHi
  • H4-C‑D 1839.490 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range right at VAH
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • Right on VAH
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Although with an open this close to VAH it could just ush­er in respon­sive activ­i­ty due to a pos­si­ble bal­anc­ing nature. So we can either say that we are in for a bal­anc­ing ses­sion OR we just accept­ed val­ue at the open and have rotat­ed through over 90%. With an arrival at H4 QHi  hav­ing test­ed once before we could see a rever­sal at this point how­ev­er due to the nature of the push high­er and trad­ed above yesterday’s body we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move unless we can rotate through val­ue and hold below.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: The open slight­ly above val­ue, new­ly formed H4-C‑D 1839.490 at VAL
  • Pre­ferred: Rotat­ing through val­ue before revers­ing through bull­ish price action clos­ing high­er tak­ing out H4-C‑S 1842.785
  • Con: risky due to W1 C‑sup
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 QHi, D1 slight­ly high­er, W1 C‑sup retest
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action with VAA and quick rota­tion, break below val­ue and hold­ing. Even­tu­al­ly tak­ing out H4 demand
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• W1-C‑S 1847.890
• H4-C‑S 1842.785

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• H4-C‑D 1795.513
• D1-C‑D 1787.150
• H4-C‑D 1772.243

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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