Premarket Prep Gold 02092021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 6 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is retrac­ing the W1 Three Out­side Down almost reach­ing new­ly formed W1-C‑S 1847.890

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price returned to D1-C‑S 1834.156 BASE lev­el, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 phase 2 （although might be near­ing its end due to swing high)
  • Mid D1/H4 swing near­ing QHi
  • Clean arrival at H4-C‑S 1837.081 with some reac­tion but no fol­low-through. Instead a close with­in over­head supply.
  • Pre­mar­ket： H4 trad­ed high­er into supply
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT with cur­rent­ly price above value
  • ADR: 28465
  • ASR: 21413
    • 540
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1839.040
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1807.730

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1847.890 at H4/D1 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Due to open sen­ti­ment and trad­ing with­in a sup­ply we might see some form of mean rever­sion before a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. Due to D1 base lev­el being hit we could see more upside on medi­um term time frame.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trad­ing with­in H4 sup­ply, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish rever­sal and IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion clos­ing below supply.
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: large imbal­ance could have momen­tum dri­ving it, plus price closed deep­er into sup­ply after return­ing to a base lev­el. Fur­ther­more we have not yet arrived at a swing high. 
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up (momen­tum), sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.101
• D1-C‑S 1855.544
• D1-C‑S 1834.156 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• H4-C‑D 1795.513
• D1-C‑D 1787.150
• H4-C‑D 1772.243

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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