Premarket Prep Gold 02052021

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 5 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last week’s spin­ning top with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing deep with­in W1 demand and W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBD giv­ing a base at D1-C‑S 1834.156 BASE arrived clean at D1-C‑D 1787.150 and cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in D1 QLo (very wide)
  • H4 Inside bar and con­sol­i­da­tion cre­at­ing some demand at D1 demand giv­ing H4-C‑D 1795.513 with price trad­ing with­in H4 QLo which is very wide
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed break­ing up from consolidation
• Trend
  • Mixed trend: H4 down, D1 down, W1 up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Tight val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous val­ue (mak­ing for 3 areas in DT)
  • ADR: 27043
  • ASR: 19492
    • 490
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1844.830
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1829.720

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1787.150 at yesterday’s low
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    •  
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 drop so we might see a pull­back and some con­tin­u­a­tion before a com­plete rever­sal is formed around these levels. 
  • Pre­ferred: Price return­ing to VAL with price action con­fir­ma­tion of a rever­sal , IB exten­sion down (oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion) with sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive:  an accep­tance would negate a con­tin­u­a­tion down at these lev­els and we might instead see a close above H4/D1 QLo sig­nal­ing a sen­ti­ment change.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick fol­low-through with a close above VAH

Addi­tion­al notes

• Non-farm today

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.101
• D1-C‑S 1855.789
• D1-C‑S 1834.156 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• H4-C‑D 1795.513
• D1-C‑D 1787.150
• H4-C‑D 1772.243

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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