Premarket Prep Gold 02032021

03 Feb Premarket Prep Gold 02032021

GBPNZD in a too tight range thus focus­ing on Gold today. 

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 5 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing below last week’s spin­ning top test­ing W1 C‑dem below

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1855.789 clos­ing at W1/D1 demand, mul­ti­ple tests of under­ly­ing demand
  • Mid D1 swing
  • H4 Inside Bar tran­si­tion to RBR (giv­ing H4-C‑D 1836.705 BASE) formed above H4 QLo (at H4 LKC in R) with Base lev­el formed below W1 C‑dem
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed retrac­ing back to H4 Base lev­el clos­ing as a bear engulf indi­cat­ing a pos­si­bil­i­ty for more downside. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous day’s val­ue but still with­in over­all range
  • ADR: 29019
  • ASR: 21379
    • 535
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1863.990
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1829.510

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑D 1838.170 below VAL with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. With an open below val­ue and H4 Bear­ing Inside Bar we could see more down­side or poten­tial­ly a H4 con­sol­i­da­tion. A val­ue accep­tance could negate this premise and we’d be look­ing for a H4 RBR after a retest of W1/D1 C‑dem.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Due to D1 Bear Engulf (and mul­ti­ple tests of under­ly­ing demand) plus open sen­ti­ment we could see a test of val­ue edge and con­tin­u­a­tion down as we have also returned to H4 base lev­el (already a M30 Bear Engulf below VAL premarket). 
  • Pre­ferred: Fail­ure to accept val­ue with bear­ish price action rever­sal at VAL. IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF demand. 
  • Con: trad­ing direct­ly into demand
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: a val­ue accep­tance would negate hypo 1 and con­tin­ue on the H4 RBR premise as a pos­si­ble retrace­ment to new­ly formed D1 C‑sup of the Bear Engulf­ing. Price is also near H4 QLo.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance with quick fol­low-through although some H4 demand is cre­at­ed so would be look­ing at low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day. 
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 con­sol­i­da­tion would force to trade between cur­rent and VAL levels. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.101
• D1-C‑S 1855.789

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1838.170
• H4-C‑D 1836.705 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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