Premarket Prep Gold 02022021

GBPNZD in a too tight range thus focus­ing on Gold today. 

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 5 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing with­in last week’s spin­ning top

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 inde­ci­sive close although trad­ed high­er but left a longer sell­ing wick behind
  • H4 Phase 3 with bear engulf and price action leav­ing behind lots of wicks, price trad­ing at H4 QHi hav­ing closed below
  • Big drop after H4 phase 3 pre­mar­ket  with clean arrival at H4 C‑dem although price is trad­ing mid (H4/D1) swing. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day brack­et­ing range with tighter val­ue cre­at­ed around VAH
  • ADR: 26626
  • ASR: 20267
    • 510
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1871.680
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1849.040

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1848.932 just above ADR 0.5 low
  • H4-C‑S 1858.434 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. With near­by H4 C‑dem we might see some reac­tion or push back to the drop pre­mar­ket. With H4 C‑sup at VAL a return to val­ue would be a great oppor­tu­ni­ty although we might see a continuation. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Asia down, Open sen­ti­ment, H4 C‑dem, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment 
  • Con: ear­ly in the week for weigh­ing on the larg­er time­frame sentiment. 
  • Pre­ferred: A move fur­ther down to W1 C‑dem fol­lowed by a failed auc­tion or if with­in IB strong bull­ish rever­sal pat­tern, exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion. Although ADR exhaus­tion is right there so be cau­tious. Mon­i­tor for val­ue acceptance.
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 C‑sup at VAL
  • Con: N.A.
  • Pre­ferred: price action rever­sal at said lev­el, failed auc­tion or TPO struc­ture buildup.
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation 
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 inde­ci­sive for­ma­tion below D12 VWAP, H4 Phase 3 tran­si­tion into 4
  • Con: clean arrival at H4 demand, near­by W1 C‑dem
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demands with sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR. 
  • Con: less like­li­hood of a uni­di­rec­tion­al move as it’s the first week of February. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.101
• H4-C‑S 1858.434

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1848.932
• W1-C‑D 1838.170

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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