Premarket Prep Gold 01212021

GBPNZD in a too tight range thus focus­ing on Gold today. 

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 3 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing high­er near­ing W1-C‑S 1889.402 and W1 VWAP CAR

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­tin­u­a­tion high­er reach­ing D1 VWAP in Range
  • H4 sup­plies tak­en out with price form­ing a RBR giv­ing a base at H4-C‑D 1855.975 BASE
  • Mid H4/D1 swing
  • H4-C‑S 1869.965 formed through Bear Engulf Premarket 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT with yesterday’s val­ue fair­ly wide
  • ADR: 30603
  • ASR: 19099
    • 480
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1872.030
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1832.480

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1855.975 BASE at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. New­ly formed H4 bear engulf at D1 VWAP in Range might prove to have some fol­low-through (Asia kin­da trad­ed side­ways slight­ly up) on although a safer play would be a Return to Val­ue with H4 C‑dem there although it is a Base and thus risky if we retrace all the way back. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion. Mon­i­tor for pos­si­ble Val­ue Acceptance.
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Pre­ferred: Retrace­ment to above VAH, bull­ish price action per­haps with failed auc­tion and or IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action with momen­tum exten­sion and sus­tained auction. 
• Hypo 4 —  Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.402
• H4-C‑S 1869.965

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1877.953 coin­cid­ing with D1 demand
• H4-C‑D 1855.975 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1847.306

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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