Premarket Prep Gold 01202021

GBPNZD in a too tight range thus focus­ing on Gold today. 

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 3 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing mid W1 swing

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­tin­ued high­er clos­ing slight­ly above W1-C‑D 1839.109 through spin­ning top 
  • H4 demand formed at W1 demand with con­se­quent move high­er through Morn­ing Star and con­tin­u­a­tion clos­ing with­in H4-C‑S 1844.705 (at H4 50MA in DT)
  • Pre­mar­ket H4 closed almost tak­ing out over­head sup­ply, trad­ing with­in H4 QHi
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue areas in uptrend but still with­in over­all range
  • ADR: 30206
  • ASR: 19632
    • 495
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1845.390
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1832.900

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • Yes­ter­day high near VAH
  • W1-C‑D 1839.109 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Larg­er imbal­ance. Open right at ADR 0.5 and H4-C‑S 1859.581 over­head with­in H4 QHi. Asia trad­ing high­er we could see some retracement/mean rever­sion. Due to poten­tial momen­tum behind the bull­ish push any shorts can be con­sid­ered high­ly risky unless more mean rever­sion cri­te­ria is met. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Yes­ter­day high at VAH (plus M30 VWAP)
  • Pre­ferred: bull­ish price action con­fir­ma­tion, IB extend­ing high­er with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Price moves high­er test­ing next sup­ply at H4-C‑S 1859.581
  • Pre­ferred: Price action rever­sal with­in IB after extend­ing up oth­er­wise a poten­tial failed auction.
  • Mon­i­tor for a poten­tial val­ue acceptance
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.402
• H4-C‑S 1859.581
• H4-C‑S 1844.705

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1877.953 coin­cid­ing with D1 demand
• D1-C‑D 1847.306
• H4-C‑D 1844.527 & W1-C‑D 1839.109

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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