Premarket Prep Gold 01122021

12 Jan Premarket Prep Gold 01122021

GBPNZD in a slight­ly too tight range so will focus on Gold today.

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold Week 2 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a momen­tum play.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• React­ing off W1 demand after Bear Engulf was formed

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Pin bar with longer buy­ing wick formed at W1-C‑D 1839.109
  • H4 Bull Engulf above D1 QLo giv­ing H4-C‑D 1844.527 with no fol­low-through. Instead some con­sol­i­da­tion (cre­at­ing some sup­ply) with a ‘weak’ bull engulf clos­ing below said supply
    • Took out said sup­ply with a con­tin­u­a­tion from the bull engulf.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT although price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above value.
  • ADR: 36203
  • ASR: 18236
    • 460
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1855.370
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1816.780

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1-C‑S 1889.402 above ADR exhaustion
  • H4-C‑D 1844.527 at VAL
  • New­ly formed H4 demand at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. With a H4 con­sol­i­da­tion at W1 demand and con­se­quent push high­er coin­cid­ing with new demand formed at VAH I am more bull­ish­ly biased unless we accept val­ue negat­ing the premise. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Pre­ferred: Price action rever­sal near VAH (per­haps even a quick rota­tion test­ing VAL and H4 C‑dem). In case of IB exten­sion down I’d pre­fer a failed auc­tion to neu­tral day extend­ing high­er. If price tra­vers­es down dur­ing IB I’d pre­fer an exten­sion up with sus­tained auction. 
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: Price tra­vers­ing high­er towards W1 C‑sup dur­ing IB (exhaust­ing ADR), pos­si­ble IB exten­sion up and failed auc­tion oth­er­wise price action rever­sal with­in IB range and con­se­quent move down. Pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture buildup before reversal.
  • Con: ADR Exhaustion
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1889.402

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1877.953 coin­cid­ing with D1 demand
• H4-C‑D 1844.527 & W1-C‑D 1839.109

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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