Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210708

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 27 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body but with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Pos­si­ble D1 RBR in the mak­ing fol­low­ing yesterday’s Hammer
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break high­er giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.96674 clos­ing deep­er into Supply.
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed extend­ed below with yesterday’s val­ue cre­at­ed above it. 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1182
  • ASR: 862
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96945
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95940

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.32xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large imbal­ance. FF trad­ed high­er tak­ing out D1 sup­ply but run­ning into the next. Trend is UP. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, Auc­tion Fade Long
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Long, if mean rever­sion doesn’t work out in the first 2 hours

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.96876
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.95263

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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