Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210610

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last month’s body but with­in range after hav­ing made a slight HH
• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and with­in range with slight reac­tion off W1-C‑S 1.96876

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed as a some­what weak bull­ish Ham­mer (buy­ing wick react­ing off D1 demand) trad­ing deep­er into D1 Sup­ply clos­ing below W1-C‑S 1.96876
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3 at W1 Sup­ply and below H4 QHi
  • H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar react­ing off H4-C‑S 1.96800 with con­tin­u­a­tion down
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous two over­lap­ping val­ue but still with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1006
  • ASR: 707
    • 18
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96977
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96180

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1 Sup­ply with­in val­ue at VAH
  • H4-C‑S 1.96800 with­in val­ue at W1 Supply
  • Yesterday’s range low is the same as yesterday’s low
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.48xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 trad­ed and closed down above D1 demand
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Asia trad­ed down. Lon­don opened with mod­er­ate imbal­ance. H4 closed down deep­er with­in H4 demand pos­si­ble start of H4 Phase 4. New­ly formed H4-C‑S 1.96642 at VAL
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: New H4-C‑S 1.96642 at VAL, H4 Phase 3, pos­si­ble H4 phase 4
  • Pre­ferred: IB tra­vers­es high­er to VAL, no exten­sion, PA rever­sal to IB exten­sion down (momen­tum). Oth­er­wise a pos­si­ble exten­sion up test­ing val­ue to failed auction.
  • Con: D1 trad­ed and closed high­er leav­ing a buy­ing wick although it could be absorp­tion with­in the distribution
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 clos­ing down, pos­si­ble H4 phase 3 / 4, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) and sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF/H4 demand (and thus tak­ing out yesterday’s low, prefer­ably dur­ing IB), 
  • Con: trad­ing into D1 demand
• Hypo 3 — Fad­ing the auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 and 2
  • Pre­ferred: TPO struc­ture at H4 demand with­in D1 demand, PA rever­sal fad­ing the auc­tion to IB edge.
  • Con: pos­si­ble H4 phase 4
• Hypo 4 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Demand, test of yesterday’s low
  • Pre­ferred: Move down ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria, strong bull­ish PA IB exten­sion up to val­ue edge
  • Con: pos­si­ble bear­ish medi­um time­frame narrative

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.96876
• H4-C‑S 1.96642

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.96248
• H4-C‑D 1.96050 OLD
• H4-C‑D 1.95738 OLD

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing a bit anx­ious still

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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