10 Jun Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210610
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading above last month’s body but within range after having made a slight HH
- Price trading above last week’s body and within range with slight reaction off W1-C‑S 1.96876
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- Yesterday closed as a somewhat weak bullish Hammer (buying wick reacting off D1 demand) trading deeper into D1 Supply closing below W1-C‑S 1.96876
- Possible H4 Phase 3 at W1 Supply and below H4 QHi
- H4 Bearish Inside Bar reacting off H4-C‑S 1.96800 with continuation down
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
- Market Profile
- Value created above the previous two overlapping value but still within overall range
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1006
- ASR: 707
- 18
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.96977
- Yesterday’s Low 1.96180
Sentiment
- Locations
- W1 Supply within value at VAH
- H4-C‑S 1.96800 within value at W1 Supply
- Yesterday’s range low is the same as yesterday’s low
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Below Value, Within Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.48xASR
- Premarket
- H4 traded and closed down above D1 demand
- Narrative
- Moderate Imbalance. Asia traded down. London opened with moderate imbalance. H4 closed down deeper within H4 demand possible start of H4 Phase 4. Newly formed H4-C‑S 1.96642 at VAL
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 3
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: New H4-C‑S 1.96642 at VAL, H4 Phase 3, possible H4 phase 4
- Preferred: IB traverses higher to VAL, no extension, PA reversal to IB extension down (momentum). Otherwise a possible extension up testing value to failed auction.
- Con: D1 traded and closed higher leaving a buying wick although it could be absorption within the distribution
- Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: H4 closing down, possible H4 phase 3 / 4,
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA, IB extension down (momentum) and sustained auction taking out LTF/H4 demand (and thus taking out yesterday’s low, preferably during IB),
- Con: trading into D1 demand
- Hypo 3 — Fading the auction
- Narrative: variation to Hypo 1 and 2
- Preferred: TPO structure at H4 demand within D1 demand, PA reversal fading the auction to IB edge.
- Con: possible H4 phase 4
- Hypo 4 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: D1 Demand, test of yesterday’s low
- Preferred: Move down fulfilling mean reversion criteria, strong bullish PA IB extension up to value edge
- Con: possible bearish medium timeframe narrative
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1.96876
- H4-C‑S 1.96642
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.96248
- H4-C‑D 1.96050 OLD
- H4-C‑D 1.95738 OLD
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling a bit anxious still
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Use SL scaling in case the profit target for the setup doesn’t provide 2R for example for FA or VAA setups
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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