Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210609

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last weeks body, with­in range at W1-C‑S 1.96876

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf formed just below D1 Sup­ply giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.96248
  • H4 phase 2 cur­rent­ly trad­ing at H4 QHi, deep­er with­in D1 QHi, some demand cre­at­ed below H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 over­lap­ping val­ues, no bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1118
  • ASR: 709
    • 18
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96761
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95904

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.96248 at VAH, with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.9xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed high­er leav­ing a buy­ing wick
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open. Open­ing below H4 QHi might see a reac­tion although H4 look­ing it might want to climb high­er fol­low­ing the D1 Bull Engulf.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge (more like­ly just to LTF/H4 demand above value)
  • Con: Risky due to D1 bull engulf
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value,
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with D1 Bull Engulf narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Exten­sion down to strong bull­ish PA (pos­si­ble at LTF/H4 demand) at Val­ue edge to fade the auc­tion. Per­haps a failed auc­tion. If IB tra­vers­es low­er there might be a rever­sal from with­in IB.
  • Con: D1 Supply
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull Engulf, H4 phase 2, pos­si­ble tight IB, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with momen­tum exten­sion high­er, sus­tained auc­tion, close above Asia high tak­ing out M30 sup­ply, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
  • Con: Trad­ing right into W1/D1 Sup­ply, sum­mer time, 1.97000 right above, 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.97133
• W1-C‑S 1.96876

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.96248

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing a bit anx­ious still

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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