Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210608

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar with slight con­tin­u­a­tion (reac­tion off D1 VWAP in UT)
  • H4 DBD (clos­ing below D1 QHi) and then a H4 Bull­ish Inside Bar is formed above old H4 demand then fur­ther con­sol­i­da­tion (slight­ly with­in D1 QHi). D1 did not close below D1 QHi.
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3
  • Trad­ing mid H4 swing.
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed far below pre­vi­ous val­ue with cur­rent­ly price trad­ing within
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1161
  • ASR: 799
    • 20
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96565
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95751

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.96300 above val­ue with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Con­sol­i­da­tion con­tin­ued through a Doji
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Although val­ue is tight. A pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 and the open with­in val­ue sug­gests some bal­anc­ing before a break giv­ing a direc­tion­al cue. Due to the slight con­tin­u­a­tion to the D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar and W1 Base that was formed last week there could be more of a con­tin­u­a­tion down. A break from val­ue would be need­ed for more information. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, fur­ther bal­anc­ing, D1 c‑sup is above val­ue, with­in range, Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to W1/D1 bear­ish narrative
  • Pre­ferred: test of D1 C‑sup prefer­ably with­out an exten­sion (oth­er­wise there could be a rejec­tion of val­ue), strong bear­ish PA, pos­si­bly mon­i­tor for an exten­sion down which could make for a val­ue rejec­tion down.
  • Con: Old H4 demand below VAL, slight­ly out­side of range
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: samen as Hypo 1 although with a test of old H4 demand below val­ue, slight­ly out­side of range
  • Pre­ferred: test below val­ue prefer­ably with­out an exten­sion of IB, Bull­ish PA
  • Con: 
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble Bear­ish D1/W1 narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close below VAL coin­cid­ing with a break of IB, sus­tained auc­tion test­ing deep­er in under­ly­ing demand.
  • Con: Under­ly­ing demand, trend is up
  • Vari­a­tion: Fad­ing the auc­tion after a poten­tial rever­sal at ADR 0.5 Low
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is up, no sig­nif­i­cant break away from D1 Bear­ish inside Bar or close below D1 QHi, pos­si­ble H4 VWAP BD to CAR ie move high­er to test VWAP after it broke down on H4
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with a break of IB, sus­tained auc­tion test­ing deep­er in D1 Supply
  • Con: D1 Supply
  • Vari­a­tion: Fad­ing the auc­tion after a poten­tial rever­sal at ADR 0.5 High

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.97125
• W1-C‑S 1.96876
• D1-C‑S 1.96300

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95738
• D1-C‑D 1.95239

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing a bit anx­ious still (best to be a bit careful)

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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