Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210526

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body. If it holds it will close as a W1 Bear Engulf. Still 3 days left.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Ham­mer clos­ing below D1 QHi
  • H4 Three Inside Up at H4 LKC with no fol­low-through. Instead, a big Bear Engulf
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up how­ev­er H4 turned to down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1168
  • ASR: 936
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96440
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95090

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.95576 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 2.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 con­tin­u­a­tion to Phase 4
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Huge Imbal­ance at the open cou­pled with ADR exhaus­tion indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble strength behind the move. Price has not yet reached H4 QLo.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: ADR exhaus­tion, open sen­ti­ment, H4 Phase 4
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum), sus­tained auc­tion to D1-C‑D 1.92400 
  • Con: Trad­ing near H4 QLo
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, price trades low­er and forms TPO struc­ture before reversing
  • Pre­ferred: 4+ TPO struc­ture with Strong rever­sal PA, pos­si­ble fad­ing the auc­tion or Sin­gle Print Fade. 
  • Con: 
• Hypo 3 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open Sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up sus­tained auc­tion to VAL
  • Con: H4 Phase 4
• Hypo 4 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 3
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Rever­sal at VAL, TPO struc­ture, fad­ing the auc­tion or SPF.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97330
• D1-C‑S 1.97120
• W1-C‑S 1.96840

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92812
• D1-C‑D 1.92400

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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