26 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210526
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- 1 trade per day minimum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a continuation to the first)
- 1R targets allowed if conditions are less than optimal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- 1 trade per day minimum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a continuation to the first)
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading below last week’s body. If it holds it will close as a W1 Bear Engulf. Still 3 days left.
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Hammer closing below D1 QHi
- H4 Three Inside Up at H4 LKC with no follow-through. Instead, a big Bear Engulf
- Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is up however H4 turned to down
- Market Profile
- Value created below bracketing range
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1168
- ASR: 936
- 24
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.96440
- Yesterday’s Low 1.95090
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑S 1.95576 at VAL
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Below Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 2.1xASR
- Premarket
- H4 continuation to Phase 4
- Narrative
- Huge Imbalance at the open coupled with ADR exhaustion indicating possible strength behind the move. Price has not yet reached H4 QLo.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: ADR exhaustion, open sentiment, H4 Phase 4
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA, IB extension down (momentum), sustained auction to D1-C‑D 1.92400
- Con: Trading near H4 QLo
- Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
- Narrative: Variation to Hypo 1, price trades lower and forms TPO structure before reversing
- Preferred: 4+ TPO structure with Strong reversal PA, possible fading the auction or Single Print Fade.
- Con:
- Hypo 3 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Open Sentiment
- Preferred: Strong Bullish PA with IB extension up sustained auction to VAL
- Con: H4 Phase 4
- Hypo 4 — Return to Value
- Narrative: variation to Hypo 3
- Preferred: Strong Bearish Reversal at VAL, TPO structure, fading the auction or SPF.
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- MN-C‑S 1.97330
- D1-C‑S 1.97120
- W1-C‑S 1.96840
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 1.92812
- D1-C‑D 1.92400
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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