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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- 1 trade per day minimum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a continuation to the first)
- 1R targets allowed if conditions are less than optimal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- 1 trade per day minimum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a continuation to the first)
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price trading within last week’s body pulling back from W1-C‑S 1.96850
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Three Inside Down giving D1-C‑S 1.97120 returning to D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE level
- H4 broke below H4 QHi with some slowdown at D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE level through a flimsy Morning Star
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is up although price has reached MN/W1 Supply level and H4 broke below QHi
- Market Profile
- 4‑day bracket with price currently trading below
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1157
- ASR: 892
- 23
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.97432
- Yesterday’s Low 1.95855
Sentiment
- Locations
- D1-C‑S 1.97120 at PPOC
- W1-C‑S 1.96850 at VAL
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Below Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.6xASR
- Premarket
- H4 closed as a Doji, possible base after the flimsy Morning Star
- Narrative
- Moderate to Large Imbalance. With price returning to D1 base demand level there could be a continuation down to D1-C‑D 1.94600. H4 is consolidation though and open sentiment is ambiguous and could go either way.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: W1 Pullback after a big move up retesting supply, trend is up, H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR
- Preferred: Strong Bullish PA after a move lower fulfilling mean reversion criteria, IB extension up. Monitor for a possible acceptance of value although unlikely,
- Con: D1 Three Inside Down
- Hypo 2 — Return to Value
- Narrative: W1 Supply at VAL, initial bounce off D1 demand base level
- Preferred: IB extension up to strong bearish reversal near VAL, possible TPO structure or Single Print Fade to failed auction.
- Con: D1 Bearish Narrative hitting D1 base demand level
- Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: Open sentiment, return to D1 demand base level,
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA with IB extension down taking out LTF demand and then H4 demand created at D1 demand base level
- Con: D1 demand base level could provide a bounce to Return to Value
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- MN-C‑S 1.97330
- D1-C‑S 1.97120
- W1-C‑S 1.96840
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE
- H4-C‑D 1.95633
- D1-C‑D 1.94600
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING