Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210525

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body pulling back from  W1-C‑S 1.96850

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.97120 return­ing to D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE level
  • H4 broke below H4 QHi with some slow­down at D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE lev­el through a flim­sy Morn­ing Star
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although price has reached MN/W1 Sup­ply lev­el and H4 broke below QHi
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4‑day brack­et with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1157
  • ASR: 892
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97432
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95855

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.97120 at PPOC
  • W1-C‑S 1.96850 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as a Doji, pos­si­ble base after the flim­sy Morn­ing Star
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. With price return­ing to D1 base demand lev­el there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion down to D1-C‑D 1.94600. H4 is con­sol­i­da­tion though and open sen­ti­ment is ambigu­ous and could go either way.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 Pull­back after a big move up retest­ing sup­ply, trend is up, H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA after a move low­er ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria, IB exten­sion up. Mon­i­tor for a pos­si­ble accep­tance of val­ue although unlikely,
  • Con: D1 Three Inside Down
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 Sup­ply at VAL, ini­tial bounce off D1 demand base level
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up to strong bear­ish rever­sal near VAL, pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade to failed auction. 
  • Con: D1 Bear­ish Nar­ra­tive hit­ting D1 base demand level
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, return to D1 demand base level, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down tak­ing out LTF demand and then H4 demand cre­at­ed at D1 demand base level
  • Con: D1 demand base lev­el could pro­vide a bounce to Return to Value

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97330
• D1-C‑S 1.97120
• W1-C‑S 1.96840

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE
• H4-C‑D 1.95633
• D1-C‑D 1.94600

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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