Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210524

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body but with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Some D1 Sup­ply cre­at­ed at MN/W1 Sup­ply but no continuation
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3, price trad­ing above H4 VWAP in UT
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up after being mixed for some time
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy brack­et­ing range was formed with last Friday’s Val­ue being wide
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1116
  • ASR: 892
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97654
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96698

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.96743 below VAL with­in range at LTF demand
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Inside Bar, pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Open with­in val­ue with a pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 there could be a val­ue rejec­tion to either side although a nod goes to the downside. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket / Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, brack­et­ing range
  • Pre­ferred: Play off LTF SD or ADR lev­els, pos­si­bly at H4-C‑D 1.96743 (M30 QLo), ADR 0.5 High above Val­ue, slight­ly above range with­in M30 QHi
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 there could be a val­ue rejec­tion instead
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3 at larg­er time­frame supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close below VAL coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auction
  • Con: Open sen­ti­ment, ambi­gu­i­ty H4 phase 1 / 3
  • Vari­a­tion: After a reject­ing down there could be TPO strcutrue buildup and con­se­quent rever­sal, per­haps fad­ing the auc­tion or Sin­gle Print Fade
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble reac­cu­mu­la­tion, pos­si­ble H4 VWAP in UT TC
  • Pre­ferred: strong bull­ish PA clos­ing above VAH coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply
  • Con: Open sen­ti­ment, ambi­gu­i­ty H4 phase 1 / 3
  • Vari­a­tion: After a reject­ing down there could be TPO strcutrue buildup and con­se­quent rever­sal, per­haps fad­ing the auc­tion or Sin­gle Print Fade

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97330
• W1-C‑S 1.96840

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.96743
• D1-C‑D 1.96000 BASE

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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