Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210519

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body although still with­in range inch­ing higher

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Ham­mer formed after a big move clos­ing with­in D1 Sup­ply (at D1 QHi) with­out mak­ing a HH (yet)
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 just below H4-C‑S 1.96285 (old), D1 QHi but with­in H4 QHi with some demand cre­at­ed at H4-C‑D 1.95638
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3‑day brack­et formed
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1222
  • ASR: 974
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96112
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95302

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.95638 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed high­er with­in H4-C‑S 1.96285 (old)
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Pre­mar­ket: With the brack­et on the pro­file and a pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 / 3 and pos­si­ble D1 RBR there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move if price opens above val­ue and extends on momen­tum tak­ing out supply. 
    • With H4 clos­ing high­er and the open sen­ti­ment show­ing a mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance this could show strength behind the move and thus a con­tin­u­a­tion. Will mon­i­tor for an exten­sion up with sus­tained auction. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 closed high­er, open sen­ti­ment, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR. Oth­er­wise a pull back towards val­ue edge before poten­tial­ly fail­ing auc­tion and move higher.
  • Con: W1 Sup­ply not far away
• Hypo 2 — Mean Rever­sion / Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price trad­ing high­er hit­ting W1 sup­ply before cre­at­ing struc­ture and reversing.
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up to pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture build up rever­sal or Sin­gle Print Fade
  • Con: Pos­si­ble strength behind the move plus end of D1 sup­ply in the way. If that gets popped there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion higher

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.96840
• H4-C‑S 1.96285 (old)
• D1-C‑S 1.95526

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95638
• D1-C‑D 1.94600

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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