19 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210519
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price is trading above last week’s body although still within range inching higher
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Hammer formed after a big move closing within D1 Supply (at D1 QHi) without making a HH (yet)
- Possible H4 Phase 1 / 3 just below H4-C‑S 1.96285 (old), D1 QHi but within H4 QHi with some demand created at H4-C‑D 1.95638
- Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Mixed Trend
- Market Profile
- 3‑day bracket formed
- Daily Range
- ADR: 1222
- ASR: 974
- 25
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1.96112
- Yesterday’s Low 1.95302
Sentiment
- Locations
- H4-C‑D 1.95638 within value at PPOC
- Sentiment
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 0.5xASR
- Premarket
- H4 closed higher within H4-C‑S 1.96285 (old)
- Narrative
- Premarket: With the bracket on the profile and a possible H4 Phase 1 / 3 and possible D1 RBR there could be a continuation to the move if price opens above value and extends on momentum taking out supply.
- With H4 closing higher and the open sentiment showing a moderate to large imbalance this could show strength behind the move and thus a continuation. Will monitor for an extension up with sustained auction.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 3
- Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation / Return to Value
- Narrative: H4 closed higher, open sentiment, larger timeframe bullish sentiment
- Preferred: Strong Bullish PA with IB extension up, sustained auction exhausting ADR. Otherwise a pull back towards value edge before potentially failing auction and move higher.
- Con: W1 Supply not far away
- Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion / Swing Reversal
- Narrative: Price trading higher hitting W1 supply before creating structure and reversing.
- Preferred: IB extension up to possible TPO structure build up reversal or Single Print Fade
- Con: Possible strength behind the move plus end of D1 supply in the way. If that gets popped there could be a continuation higher
Additional notes
- Capital Preservation Rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C‑S 1.96840
- H4-C‑S 1.96285 (old)
- D1-C‑S 1.95526
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.95638
- D1-C‑D 1.94600
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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