Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210517

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 20 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body but with­in range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price retrac­ing to D1-C‑S 1.95526 after hav­ing cre­at­ed some demand at D1-C‑D 1.94600
  • Price bounced off H4-C‑D 1.94250 after H4 VWAP in UT BD to now pos­si­bly CAR at D1-C‑S 1.95526 and H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the previous 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1268
  • ASR: 1006
    • 26
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95787
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94053

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.95526 with­in Val­ue below VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 trad­ed high­er to a poten­tial H4 VWAP in UT BD to CAR coin­cid­ing with D1-C‑S 1.95526
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. ALthough with D1 sup­ply with­in val­ue there could be a val­ue rejec­tion down if it proves reactive. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: play off LTF SD and ADR lev­els, D1 C‑sup with­in value
  • Con: N.A.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, D1 C‑sup with­in value
  • Pre­ferred: Pre­ferred a con­fi­dent close below VAL, IB exten­sion down
  • Con: 
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 Rally
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Close above VAH with coin­cid­ing IB exten­sion up
  • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.95526

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.94600

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing tired so not going to force things

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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