Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210514

14 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210514

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price still hold­ing above last week’s range with slight reac­tion off W1-C‑S 1.96840

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside Bar that retraced about 40–45% at D1 QHi and D1 UKC in R
  • H4 Bear Engulf at H4/D1 QHi, H4-C‑S 1.96286, although no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. Price pulling back after hit­ting H4 VWAP in UT cre­at­ing some demand giving: 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT although price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1364
  • ASR: 957
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96590
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.95189

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.96286 with­in Value
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bear Engulf just above H4 VWAP in UT
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance at the open. With H4 Bear Engulf made pre­mar­ket there could be a H4 VWAP in UT BD in line with the pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, IB trad­ed off LTF sup­ply with­in range, D1 Inside Bar clos­ing below D1 QHi, mixed trend and D1 UKC in R
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 demand, oth­er­wise a failed auc­tion after a test of val­ue edge (for a test of D1 QHi after rejection)
  • Con: Some demand cre­at­ed at H4 VWAP in UT 
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Inside Bar not entire­ly bear­ish, Pos­si­ble H4 VWAP in UT TC
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up clos­ing with­in val­ue, with quick follow-through
  • Con: H4 c‑sup with­in value 
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.96840
• H4-C‑S 1.96286

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95500
• H4-C‑D 1.94256

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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