Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210513

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price moved up from W1 QLo, W1 VWAP, cre­at­ing W1-C‑D 1.92818, with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s range arriv­ing at W1-C‑S 1.97330 (with some reac­tion at the moment but will need a close)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Ral­ly to D1 UKC in R coin­cid­ing with D1/W1 sup­ply clos­ing with­in D1 QHi
  • Price arrived at H4 QHi (slight­ly with­in D1 QHi) and start­ed react­ing through a DBD for­ma­tion cre­at­ing some sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.96286 (although high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1309
  • ASR: 920
    • 230
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96690
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94527

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.4xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 pull­back clos­ing to slight­ly below D1 QHi after react­ing off H4 QHi
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance due to open slight­ly out­side range. Could go either way. H4 and W1 sup­ply and H4 price mov­ing down could see a con­tin­u­a­tion down although due to D1 clos­ing near its high there could still be buy­ers around these lev­els. Hav­ing said that price has reached D1 UKC in R. Asia trad­ed side­ways and Franky Fake out took it down with­out tak­ing out LTF demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue / Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 narrative
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion, prefer­ably a move extend­ing down to val­ue edge before fail­ing auc­tion to new highs.
  • Con: H4/D1/W1 Sup­ply overhead. 
• Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: price extends to the upside hit­ting W1 Sup­ply (and ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria) before form­ing a strong rever­sal to failed auction
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 bull­ish narrative
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: A breather in the mar­ket after a ral­ly and hit­ting a key lev­el of supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
• Might lose elec­tric­i­ty today due to main­te­nance to pow­er supply

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97330
• W1-C‑S 1.96840
• H4-C‑S 1.96286

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94256
• W1-C‑D 1.92819

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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