Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210512

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price has made a HH as opposed to last week’s range and tak­en out D1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ed high­er and closed below D1-C‑S 1.94900 yes­ter­day although is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in D1 supply
  • Price has not (yet) reached D1 QHi
  • H4 Phase 1 (reac­cu­mu­la­tion) below H4 QHi with some demand H4-C‑D 1.94256 cre­at­ed at H4 UKC in R through a bull engulf
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend. After the ini­tial DT price has moved high­er although not (yet) chang­ing the trend.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues are in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1230
  • ASR: 922
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94848
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93964

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.94256 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.9xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Closed high­er into H4 QHi not yet reached D1 QHi.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open. Asia has trad­ed high­er so Lon­don could take it down. Although ADR exhaus­tion high is just above LTF sup­ply so if hit there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the D1 Bull­ish Nar­ra­tive and also not hav­ing arrived at D1 QHi. A mean rever­sion could be pos­si­ble but a Return to Val­ue would be more in line with the D1 narrative.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, near­by H4 Sup­ply plus D1 sup­ply end
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA with IB exten­sion down or a failed auc­tion in case of an exten­sion up.
  • Con: If ADR gets exhaus­tion, D1 narrative
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 bull­ish nar­ra­tive, H4 demand with­in value
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down to LTF demand above VAH, strong bull­ish PA, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion or Sin­gle Print Fade if there is not TPO structure.
  • Con: 
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull­ish Nar­ra­tive almost tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply, ADR exhaus­tion nearby. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR and tak­ing out D1 Supply
  • Con: Pos­si­ble Reac­tion off pop­ping the D1 Supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.95883
• D1-C‑S 1.94900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94256
• D1‑C‑D 1.92400
• H4-C‑D 1.92030

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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