Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210510

10 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210510

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #GBPNZD #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 19 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • Doing one now

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Even though a W1 DBD was formed with a long sell­ing wick price is still trad­ing above W1 VWAP and some demand has been cre­at­ed above W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 and D1 Morn­ing Star before almost tak­ing out D1 Demand End 1.91725
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 arriv­ing at H4-C‑S 1.92700
• Trend: H4 down, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN. Although due to price being at W1 VWAP in DT BO to pos­si­bly CAS and pos­si­ble MN con­sol­i­da­tion with price being at the bot­tom of the range there could be a rever­sal here. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues after a DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1322
  • ASR: 928
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93000
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91750

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1‑C‑S 1.93070 above VAH and range
  • D1-C‑D 1.92400 below val­ue with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.1xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 sup­ply got tak­en out premarket. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance with IB trad­ing high­er and H4 sup­ply get­ting tak­en out in pre­mar­ket. Also ADR exhaus­tion is right above there could be an exhaus­tion and thus con­tin­u­a­tion high­er although trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply can be tricky. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment. H4 sup­ply get­ting popped premarket. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR / IB extes­nion down to failed auction
  • Con: Trend is Down. D1 Supply
• Hypo 2 — H4 Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1. Hit­ting H4 C‑sup at H4 UKC in R
  • Preferred:Strong rever­sal PA, pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade 
  • Con: Pos­si­ble ADR exhaustion
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is down, open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: open above value

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93850
• D1‑C‑S 1.93070

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1‑C‑D 1.92400
• H4-C‑D 1.92030

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Did not sleep well last night due to late din­ner so not like­ly to trade today

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram