Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210506

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
    • Doing one now

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ed above last weeks W1 Drag­on­fly Doji and start­ed retrac­ing down but is still trad­ing above.
• Price trad­ing above W1 VWAP and W1 demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf cre­at­ed giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.93070 and return­ing to D1-C‑D 1.92400 (but not clos­ing with­in) at D1 LKC in R
  • Poten­tial D1 Phase 1
  • H4 Bear Engulf at H4-C‑S 1.94090 giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.93850 return­ing to H4 QLo before cre­at­ing a Bull Engulf clos­ing above H4 QLo
  • Price broke down from H4 VWAP
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend changed from a Mixed Trend to down. It start­ed with H4 shift­ing to down and now D1 has fol­lowed suit.
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below the pre­vi­ous one although still above the over­all range that was cre­at­ed previously
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1182
  • ASR: 894
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94372
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92503

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.94090 above VAH with­in range
  • H4-C‑S 1.93850 at VAH
  • D1-C‑S 1.93070 at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar but more prob­a­bly as a consolidation.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Due to W1 there could be a move high­er negat­ing the D1 Bear Engulf cre­at­ed yes­ter­day. H4 could be in Phase 1 at the bot­tom of the range.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, D1 C‑sup at VAL
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish rever­sal at VAL, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion or failed auc­tion to Neu­tral Day
  • Con: Pos­si­ble W1 bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 bull­ish sen­ti­ment, MN con­sol­i­da­tion, Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1,
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick follow-through
  • Con: D1 C‑sup at VAL
• Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity
  • Non-Farm Fri­day tomorrow

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900
• H4-C‑S 1.94650
• H4-C‑S 1.94090
• H4-C‑S 1.93850

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92530
• W1-C‑D 1.92120

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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