Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210505

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing with­in MN Bear­ish Inside Bar
• Trad­ing above last week’s Doji’s body and range con­tin­u­ing reac­tion off W1-C‑D 1.92120

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR with yes­ter­day clos­ing above D1 VWAP in DT leav­ing behind a very long sell­ing wick after react­ing off D1-C‑S 1.94900, D1 Phase 2
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and Break Down at H4-C‑S 1.94650 (and H4 QHi) through a Bear Engulf (giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.94090 although high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) although with­out fol­low-through. Instead some demand was cre­at­ed above H4 UKC in R with near­by VWAP in UT
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend after a down trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Larg­er val­ue area cre­at­ed above over­all brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1111
  • ASR: 854
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94810
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93055

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.94650 at VAH
  • H4-C‑S 1.94090 (high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve) at VAL
  • H4-C‑D 1.93851 just below VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4-C‑D 1.93851 was con­firmed through H4 Three Inside Up
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. There was a H4 Three Inside Up cre­at­ed pre­mar­ket just below VAL so there might be a bounce in the form of a Val­ue Rejec­tion Fail­ure of this lev­el. If price holds below in a sus­tained auc­tion price could reject value.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, bounce off H4-C‑D 1.93851
  • Pre­ferred: Strong rever­sal pat­tern off H4-C‑D 1.93851 and con­se­quent move higher
  • Con: an IB exten­sion and close below value
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 move higher
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up and close above VAH
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close below val­ue coin­cid­ing with an IB exten­sion down.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 move higher

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900
• H4-C‑S 1.94650
• H4-C‑S 1.94090 (high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93050
• H4-C‑D 1.92530
• W1-C‑D 1.92120

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay but did not sleep enough last night

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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