Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210504

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s Drag­on­fly Doji at W1 VWAP

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR tak­ing out D1 demand react­ing off D1 VWAP in DT leav­ing behind a longer sell­ing wick
  • H4 Bear Engulf (clos­ing as a Marubozu) formed at pre­vi­ous H4-C‑S 1.93470 with no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. Instead a H4 Three Out­side Up giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.93050
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is down. Although has reached a pre­vi­ous W1 demand and has seen some reaction.
    • Pre­mar­ket Trend changed to a Mixed Trend due to H4 chang­ing to Up. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After a 5‑day brack­et a val­ue was cre­at­ed above the bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1047
  • ASR: 808
    • 20
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93521
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92496

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.93050 below VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Closed high­er. IB took out H4 supply. 
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. If IB doesn’t extend too far there could be momen­tum behind the move exhaust­ing ADR and thus we could poten­tial­ly see a uni­di­rec­tion­al day. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: 0.5xASR IBR, H4 sup­ply got tak­en out, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up, exhaust­ing ADR, sus­tained auc­tion close with­in H4 supply.
  • Con: H4-C‑S 1.94300 right above
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Rever­sal at H4-C‑S 1.94300, failed auc­tion, pos­si­bly a TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade
  • Con: Medi­um time­frame bull­ish narrative

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94300

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93050
• H4-C‑D 1.92530

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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