Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210503

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 18 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Last week closed as a Drag­on­Fly Doji above W1 QLo and W1 VWAP

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 above D1 QLO around D1 200MA in R
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 1 trad­ing between H4-C‑S 1.92900 and H4-C‑D 1.9253 trad­ing at H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 5‑day brack­et. Bal­anc­ing Market.
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1064
  • ASR: 887
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93080
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92063

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.92530 at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 Bull­ish Inside Bar but with longer sell­ing wick react­ing off H4 supply
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance at the open. Open Above val­ue with a mod­er­ate imbal­ance in a 5‑day brack­et­ing range cou­pled with a pos­si­ble H4/D1 phase 1 could poten­tial­ly mean a move high­er. Although D1/H4 sup­ply would need to get tak­en out first before any such direc­tion­al state­ment can be made confidently.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 c‑dem at VAH
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auction
  • Con: 5‑day brack­et­ing range trad­ing into H4 sup­ply could see a rever­sal with­in over­all range
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment with­in over­all brack­et­ing range at the high
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Accep­tance with quick follow-through
  • Con: Demand with­in Value
• Hypo 3 — H4 Swing Rever­sal (vari­a­tion to 1)
  • Nar­ra­tive: Tak­ing out H4 demand at 1st DTTZ, hit­ting H4-C‑S 1.93470 revers­ing around 2nd DTTZ
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA rever­sal at H4-C‑S 1.93470, per­haps a TPO struc­ture buildup or sin­gle print fade
  • Con: tak­ing out H4 supply

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93470
• H4-C‑S 1.92900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92530
• H4-C‑D 1.92040

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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