Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210429

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 17 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Only trade the main account
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 Phase 4 with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below last week’s body and range
• Slight reac­tion off W1 VWAP and W1-C‑D 1.92120 (pos­si­ble BASE)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 demand tak­en out by D1 Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.92188 right at W1 demand although trad­ing at D1 LKC in R above D1 QLo (no touch yet)
  • H4 Bull Engulf at W1 demand but trad­ing below H4 VWAP in DT 
  • Trad­ing with­in H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 down, D1 down, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3‑day brack­et
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1043
  • ASR: 951
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93198
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92806

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • W1 demand at VAL
  • ADR exhaus­tion high just below H4 c‑sup
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed high­er from Bull Engulf
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Although price has con­tin­ued high­er from W1 demand (coin­cid­ing with W1 VWAP) so there is a pos­si­bil­i­ty for a val­ue rejec­tion up.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels
  • Con: Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 move higher
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 move high­er after bull engulf
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action with sus­tained auc­tion clos­ing above VAH
  • Con: H4 VWAP in DT, opened at VAL
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 VWAP in DT, Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to W1 Phase 4
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action, clos­ing below VAL 
  • Con: H4 c‑dem

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
• Cau­tion as end of the month is nearing

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.92900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92120 (pos­si­ble BASE)

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Only trade the main account
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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